Life-Poker.info

101 Playing Tips

Irfan — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 13:20:15 +0000

It’s a great and fun way to earn some extra money. The following general blackjack tips are meant to shore up the playing strategies and skills of all players regardless of their competence levels. Although most of the tips do assume some knowledge of counting, novices and expert counters alike can benefit from the assorted advice, which is presented here in no particular order.
1. Follow these two playing rules alone, to reduce the house edge in blackjack to approximately 1%: (i) Stand when you hold 12-16 versus dealer stiff up-cards. (ii) Hit your 12-16 when dealer shows pat up-cards.
2. When you decide to play shoe games, look for a dealer who places the plastic shuffle card the deepest, i.e., as close as possible to the last card that could possibly be dealt. Dealers have some discretion about where this reminder is inserted, and since they hate to shuffle they will sometimes stick it less than one deck from the bottom. This practice increases your profits when the TC is up, especially toward the end of every shoe.
3. Blackjack is a mini-war between you and the casino. Only if you take all of the little battles seriously will you emerge victorious in the end. Therefore, adopting a quasi-spy demeanor and mentality is almost a necessity. Try to be unobtrusive, quiet, and polite, like the “average” tourist, but keep your mission in mind. You are there to make money.
4. Keep a secret written record of all your playing results not only how much you win or lose per session but also where you played, how long you were there, rule variations encountered, and even specific dealers and pit personnel present. This way you can avoid suspicion by not returning too soon to casinos that may have noticed you, especially during the same personnel shift.
5. Although the temptation is great, resist the free alcoholic beverages that are offered at most casinos while you are playing. The main reason is that you will make mistakes in your play directly proportional to the amount of liquor you consume. Also, you may draw attention to yourself if you order a drink and then have to leave the table before it arrives because the TC has dropped drastically.
6. Playing with a partner or two that you can trust can be beneficial for all concerned. Not only can you count at different tables in uncrowded casinos and secretly signal each other whenever conditions may warrant, but by combining your bankrolls you can more easily range your bets in accordance with the Kelly Criterion without violating the 2% Rule. Partnerships also diffuse the risk that any of you will experience Gambler’s Ruin, especially if all members of the team can play competently.
7. By playing two hands of $5 each, instead of one hand of $10, you reduce your risk without changing your expected win-rate. With multiple hands, you can get twice the money on the table under favorable conditions without obviously ranging your bets at all. Some casinos require at least double-the-minimum bets on multiple hands, to protect themselves against this practice. However, if you’re at a $2 table and the TC warrants a $10 bet, you are further ahead to play two spots of $5 each another reason to choose uncrowded tables.
8. While playing, try to become completely detached emotionally and financially from the size of your bet and from whether you happen to be winning or losing at the time. Feeling elated over how much you are up, or too concerned about being down a few dollars, can distract you from efficient playing. Evaluating your situation during the shuffle is preferable and is perfectly acceptable.
9. It’s worth dropping in to the Gambler’s Blog Club, a blogstore located at 630 South 11th Street in Las Vegas, if you are in that vicinity. This store carries all the latest blackjack newsletters, blogs, and information that you could ever need. The owner, Mrs. Edna Luckman, has shown me around personally, and her staff is just as friendly and helpful as she is.
10. At the beginning of a shoe, be somewhat wary in your wagering, and range your bets slightly more conservatively. An early TC in shoe games is not quite as “true” as it sometimes appears. The closer you get to the end of the shoe, the more accurate and reliable it becomes.
11. Whether or not to surrender, when permitted, should always be considered your highest priority play. In other words, proceed to split, hit, or stand only if your hand is not to be surrendered, or if surrendering is not allowed.
12. Other factors being equal, choose a table that has a young, female dealer. Studies have shown that players actually do win more from such dealers.
13. When learning BS or MBS, it is better to use the practice exercises presented in this blog rather than dealing out actual hands to yourself from a deck of cards. Although the latter more closely represents the casino experience, you may not receive all of the important beginning two-card possibilites in such “real” practice sessions. It could take you thousands of hands before every possible combination was dealt randomly. Stick to the printed exercises until you have mastered them completely, then proceed to the more concrete.
14. Although it is a player’s prerogative to ask for a shuffle after any hand, you should never exercise this right. Normal players (and dealers alike) hate shuffling, because it is boring and slows down the action of the game. If the TC goes extremely sour, consider asking to be dealt out of the next hand if the pit boss isn’t nearby or apt to observe you. Then, if the count stays just as low or goes even worse, you can ask the dealer for a marker while you “visit the restroom.” Of course, you will coincidentally arrive back during a shuffle! If you’ve already used the washroom excuse with that dealer, maybe it’s time you left that table in order “to get something to eat.”
15. Whenever the rules are the same, always choose a table that allows the lowest betting limit. You will certainly attract less attention there than if you were to play at a $100 minimum table. Low-limit tables tend to be more crowded, but there is also less chance that the dealer there will be a cheat. Pit bosses put their most experienced dealers at the higher-limit tables. With lower minimums you will lose less during negative counts.
16. Although most casinos these days are completely honest, some are not. Be aware that the dealer may be cheating you or other players, for a variety of reasons. If you suspect a dishonest dealer, leave the table as quickly and quietly as possible. You have nothing to gain from a confrontation.
17. Some casinos use no shuffle cards in double-deck games. It is left entirely to the discretion of the dealer, when there is less than a deck left, whether or not to deal another hand before shuffling. When the count is positive and the cards are running low, this is often a good time to place a small bet (the table minimum is sufficient) for the dealer, since he is then more likely to deal one more round, rather than shuffling-up immediately. Tips are very important to dealers, since they make an amount equivalent to their wages from them. You not only create favor for yourself with the dealer by this gesture, you may both come up winners on these “extra” hands.
18. Play only with your “head,” never your “heart.” Follow the BS or MBS consistently, and do not let intuition or hunches dictate any of your decisions. If negative emotions arise, it’s time to push away from the table. This usually happens when you are mentally fatigued or in the midst of a losing streak. The temptation is to abandon your game plan and win everything back with one big wager. Don’t try it. Instead of penalizing yourself that way, this is an excellent opportunity to take a time-out.
19. The ideal situation, of course, is to have a table all to yourself. Although this is a matter of prestige for some high rollers, it is not recommended for beginning players. One-on-one with the dealer can be intimidating. The dealer will often talk to you too much, thereby disturbing your counting calculations, or will try to pressure you into playing faster than you would normally like to do. Neither of these situations is conducive to profitable blackjack. But once you learn how to take control and pace such a “private” game to your own ideal speed, there are larger profits to be had in these head-to-head sessions.
First of all, there is no chance of your missing cards, since they are all either yours or the dealer’s. When the count goes up, only you profit, since you don’t have to share the good cards with other players. In any given time period, you can get in five or six times the number of hands you could normally play at a full table. In short, you can enjoy all the advantages playing solo, while suffering no disadvantages.
20. Try to make a habit of continually hiding away chips, especially when you’re ahead. Palm away your winnings a few at a time whenever nobody is watching. If you can’t manage to pocket them secretly while sitting at the table (during a shuffle, for instance), do it when you’re in the washroom or walking between tables. Make absolutely certain that no one detects this practice, since it will work against you if you are spotted. “Ordinary” players tend to revel in their winnings and would never try to hide them. Only a counter would do something like that. Do it, though, because pit bosses always notice when players start to accumulate piles of chips. By constantly needing to buy more chips, you’ll be viewed as just another loser and no threat to the establishment. Furthermore, any “eccentric” plays you may make will tend to be more tolerated, and you’ll be allowed to proceed with your game plan largely unmolested by floor personnel.
21. Coloring up chips at the table is never a good idea. You only draw attention to yourself and allow the dealers and pit bosses to see more easily how much you’ve won. Besides, it looks suspicious to be coloring up to greens or blacks when all you normally bet are reds. The average player simply wouldn’t do it. A better practice is to wait until your pockets start to bulge, then casually proceed indirectly to the cashier’s cage to cash them out.
22. Some “superstitious” players don’t like to play the first hand after a shuffle, especially in single- or double-deck games. They prefer to sit and count the cards for the first round. Their reasoning is that it is easiest for a dealer to cheat (especially the player at first base) right after shuffling-up. There is little need for you to adopt this habit, however, since as soon as you suspect the dealer may be a cheat, you should be out of there. There are too many honest games around to chance playing with a crooked dealer. Besides, sitting out hands always draws attention to yourself.
23. When counting Aces on the side, count backward, thereby saving the subtraction step. That is, in a double-deck game, when you see the first Ace say “7″ to yourself, then “6″ as you see another, and so on. You always know exactly how many are available to be dealt. This is also an easier way to keep track of 5s, for those players who may wish to use Thorp’s Five-count strategy.
24. When you have a wide choice of casinos, as in Atlantic City or Las Vegas, it is best to play less than two hours in any one, per personnel shift. Even this length of time should be spent at several different tables. This is advisable for two reasons: First of all, floor people tend to notice winners, although the amounts won may be truly insignificant. You will stand out less when you move from table to table, possibly through several different pits. Second, you always do better when mentally and physically fresh. Planted in the same spot too long, you get too comfortable and are apt to lose your concentration more easily or get careless.
25. Flat betting while following proper MBS will never tip you off as a counter. Few pit bosses actually know correct BS, let alone its modifications. Even fewer are familiar with any counting systems. They do know, however, that counters generally vary the size of their bets as the composition of the remaining cards changes. Flat bettors are never barred from any casino.
26. If your last bet was large (five or six units), and the shoe runs out, you are often wiser to leave the table during the shuffle, rather than stay on and start the new shoe with a single-unit bet again. The reason is simple: Unless you were a counter, why would you reduce your bet so drastically just because the dealer shuffled? It’s a dead giveaway if you do. Dealers and floor people are trained to pick up on such practices. Leaving the table at shuffle time, however, is a common occurrence that goes unnoticed. Many regular gamblers use this time for a break. How crowded the casino is, of course, should partly influence your decision to try another table in this situation. If you cannot readily play elsewhere, reducing your opening bet to, say, three units might be an acceptable alternative, especially if you believe the pit boss may be aware of the size of your last wager.
27. This one is a corollary to tip 26. Never pull back a large bet and replace it with the minimum simply because the dealer is going to shuffle. This situation happens more frequently in single- and double-deck games when you may already have placed your bet for the upcoming hand. Leaving the table is neither reasonable nor practical in these situations. This dilemma will ocur less frequently if you cultivate the habit of generally being the last player to push out a wager before every hand.
28. Never stack up your winnings in orderly piles. This habit only allows casino personnel to more easily count their losses. Also, regularly bet with mixed-denomination chips. A quarter (green) with a couple of nickels (reds) or silver on top are less noticeable than a tall stack of reds. Dealers and floor people will tend to be more occupied with determining your correct payoffs than with the overall amounts won on such hands.
29. When tracking cards, train yourself to think of the count as being “up” or “down” rather than plus/minus or positive/negative. For example, ” 1″ is easier and quicker to verbalize mentally as “down 1,” as opposed to “negative 1″ or “minus 1.” Saying the number to yourself in a deeper tone of voice is also an effective way of distinguishing between “down” and “up” integers. Better still, “plus” counts should be thought of as ordinary whole numbers, (e.g., ” + 7″ as just plain “7″), with no positive- or plus-sign whatsoever attached. Only the negative integers need their minus-sign designation. This habit will save you time, effort, and possible confusion when counting, especially until you gain more experience.
30. “Sitting out” or “passing” hands only draws unnecessary attention to yourself immediately as a possible counter. An ordinary player wouldn’t do this; he’s there to gamble, not just to sit and watch. Be prepared to leave the table if your pass is questioned. Make sure the count is poor enough to justify your exit from the game, since some casinos have no-midshoe-entry policies which require players to wait until after a shuffle to re-enter.
31. Don’t always make your playing decisions as fast as you can. The average player has to think a little before hitting a soft 18 against the dealer’s 9, etc. By emulating the usual loser’s slower playing style, you are less likely to be seen as a winner, barred, noticed as a counter, or even tagged as a “correct” player.
32. Never advise another player at your table about anything. Even if someone asks you directly about whether to hit, stand, double, split, surrender, take insurance, or any other information, just plead ignorance. Say, “It’s your money; you have to make the decisions! If you want to give it to me, then I’ll play with it my way.” There are at least five good reasons for refraining from this otherwise ego-building practice: (i) You will never be rewarded in any tangible way if the player takes your advice and wins, but you certainly will be blamed if he loses. (ii) You don’t need the “expert” label drawing unnecessary attention to yourself from both dealers and pit bosses alike, (iii) Teaching others how to play correctly slows down the game for everyone at the table; you usually end up answering “why” questions, then arguing about the merits of various plays with some other well-intentioned player, (iv) Good advice is seldom truly appreciated. Most players are there merely to have a little fun. If they really wanted to know how to play the game, they would have bought a blog like this and learned beforehand. Whether or not they win or lose a few dollars is usually irrelevant. Their primary purpose at the table is almost certainly not to learn how to play blackjack properly, (v) Playing the Good Samaritan will eventually interfere with your own card-counting calculations and result in financial losses to yourself. Someone will inevitably ask you a question just at a critical point in your own decision-making process, which will interfere with optimum play on your part.
33. Unless you plan to ask for comps later, always buy chips in small transactions, i.e., $50 worth or less at a time. You will avoid extra attention this way and appear more like an average small-time player. At a low-limit table especially, it looks very suspicious when someone buys in with a $100 bill or more, then proceeds to wager only $1 or $2 per hand.
34. You’ve probably heard the old adage, “Never leave the table while you are winning!” Regardless of how poor the playing conditions may become, it is obviously smart to play as long as you’re making money. Unfortunately, many people interpret this saying as meaning you should only leave a loser. Keep playing until you begin to lose. No matter how much money you have made in the session, once you reach your stop-loss limit as described in chapter 5, walk away.
35. Cultivate an “act” of some land to divert suspicion away from the fact that you are a threat to the casino. A tired tourist who can’t add very quickly, perhaps just learning the game, is a suitable disguise that is easy to maintain convincingly. In many cases, it is essential that you maintain an act in order to avoid getting barred. You must keep in mind primarily why you are there to win money steadily and undetected, over short periods of time. You won’t be able to do this if you aren’t allowed to play.
36. One way to win without actually learning to count the cards yourself is to find a counter and carefully mimic his bet-ranging. Play your hands according to BS. Proper ranging with BS is more successful than flat betting while playing MBS correctly, according to Griffin’s Theory of Blackjack. Besides, only rarely is MBS required anyway. The main thing is to get more money out onto the table when the count is good and you have the advantage.
37. If you wish to be very conservative and take 99% of the gamble out of the game, play only where the count is positive. This is referred to as “Wonging,” since Stanford Wong was the first to openly advocate such a practice. Make your way slowly around the pit, sliding in bets whenever you see positive situations. Continue playing at a table until the count goes negative, then move on. You don’t get in as many hands with this style of play, and you tend to draw attention to yourself, but the pit personnel will normally not bother you as long as your wagers are small. By playing only when you have the advantage, you will usually make money every session. One disadvantage of this type of play is that you tend to get tired of standing unless you are in excellent physical condition. You will rarely find situations where the counts remain positive long enough for you to sit down at any table for more than a few hands at a time.
38. Don’t socialize at the tables. Be pleasant in manner, but speak only when necessary. Remember, you are there to make money, not friends. The last thing you need is a player or dealer barking gregariously in your ear while you’re trying to decide how best to range your next bet according to some obscure MBS play that you can barely recall.
39. Never ask to see the card that the dealer burns after a shuffle. Although it certainly would assist in determining the correct TC, only a counter would be interested in seeing it. No need to possibly arouse such suspicion over a single unseen card.
40. If you notice a pit boss observing you carefully while flipping through a pile of photos, it’s time to move on to another casino. Don’t wait to get barred. You can always drop back there later when the shift changes.
41. Maintaining an accurate Hi-Low RC can sometimes be a chore for beginners. One way to ease this constant pressure is to mentally “cancel” high and low cards that appear together or in the same group, without actually including them into the count at all. For example, count the following groups of exposed cards for yourself:
2, 5, 7, A, T 3, 9, T 4, T, 2, A 3, T, 8
Instead of counting them individually, you may have noticed that each group’s total is zero. In the first case, the 2 and 5 cancel the A and T; similarly with the others. As you view such situations there is often no need to update your RC whatsoever. With a little practice using this method, it is possible to determine an overall table count quite effortlessly from little more than a glance. This skill is particularly useful if you are at a full table and using merely plus-count wagering (explained in chapter 6), or when the dealer flips over a blackjack and immediately starts scooping up the cards before you have begun counting them.
42. Do not play any game where the rules are too restrictive. If the place is too crowded or other playing conditions are not suitable, try another casino and come back to this one at some later time. If you have no alternative casino available, then you may decide to play a few hands very selectively and conservatively, i.e., only when the TC reaches 3 or more. Remember, you are there to win; therefore, it makes no sense to hand over your chips arbitrarily and needlessly if you know the odds are against you. I remember visiting the Casino de Montreal a few years ago and walking out without playing a single hand: The place was packed, and the rules were attrocious.
43. Hesitating unduly before putting your bet out is an indication that you may be a counter. Try never to seem indecisive about the size that your next wager should be. Only counters would be concerned about proper-sized bets.
44. By playing more small-stake hands when you have an advantage, you vastly increase your chances of doubling your bankroll, rather than playing fewer hands of larger wagers each. (See “Calculating Appropriate Bet Sizes,” chapter 4.)
45. Never increase your bet merely to catch up after a big loss or losing streak. This practice is sometimes called “chasing your losses,” and although it is tempting to do, it can be disastrous. If you continue to lose, it could completely destroy your chances of breaking even during the session. You don’t need to run the risk of being totally discouraged as a result of an even bigger loss. Remember that the only justification for increasing the size of your last wager is a more favorable TC.
46. Some casinos require all wagers to be made in even-dollar increments, to avoid problems in paying off blackjacks. Where $2.50 chips are permitted to be wagered, payoff policies differ from one casino to another. Some round up blackjack payoffs, always giving $4.00 for the $2.50 chip. In the places that round off to the nearest dollar, you can take advantage of this bit of “bonus” money by making your bets total odd-dollar increments, e.g., $3.50, $5.50, etc., in order to benefit from the round-off. While not worth the trouble for most players, it is nevertheless a valid consideration.
47. If you happen to lose your entire playing stake during a session, physically remove yourself from the casino immediately. Wallowing in your depression serves no useful function and may lead to rash acts that could actually increase your losses. Walking back to your hotel room will provide the necessary cooling-off period in which you can more objectively evaluate why you lost. Perhaps you should not have been in that casino in the first place, because of its poor playing conditions. Maybe you should have been playing more conservatively. Without becoming paranoid, ask yourself: Could the dealer have been cheating?
As long as you were following your game plan and playing correctly, there is no need to take a beating personally. Perhaps your losses were merely a result of an extended stretch of stiff hands and unlucky hits. Try to calmly accept the fact that these things happen to everyone from time to time. Probability theory and MBS don’t guarantee that you always win, just that you mostly do whenever you play with the odds in your favor. In any case, use this down-time constructively to update your game plan for future sessions.
48. Don’t feel guilty about playing smart and winning. The chips you win represent your money, no longer the casino’s even though their name is still on them. Skill alone has provided you with your advantage. The casinos grab every chip that they possibly can; everyone from hopeless drunks to beginning players who don’t even know enough to double on lis are their hapless victims. No need to show pity for the poor, innocent casinos by giving their money back.
49. If you notice the dealer paying off a push or overpaying a blackjack, you might decide to point it out if it’s for your own hand; otherwise keep quiet. Other players may resent your imposing your own morality upon them. An honest dealer will collect just as much money accidentally as he pays out, so it all balances in the end. And some dealers even take offense when improper payouts are pointed out to them. If “mistakes” start to happen too frequendy, you are wiser to change tables. You don’t need the extra mental stress of having to check up on the dealer’s payoffs every hand or worrying that the dealer might be a cheat.
50. If you notice a dealer shuffling-up on you every time you raise your bets, especially in a single- or double-deck game, you can sometimes turn the tables on him. The casinos often instruct their dealers to shuffle whenever a bigger wager is placed suddenly, since they are hoping to thereby eliminate any advantage a counter may possess. This is known as “preferential” shuffling. When this happens you can be fairly certain that you have been “made,” and the dealer is trying to shuffle away any positive count that may have arisen, by dealing the next hand from a neutral deck or shoe. So, if you have the nerve and financial freedom, try this for fun:
When the TC goes negative, shove out a much larger wager instead of leaving the table. The dealer may then proceed to shuffle away the disadvantage for you. Pull back a chip or two during the shuffle, just as an inexperienced counter would do. Then proceed to keep your “neutral” bets flat, but slighdy higher than normal, whenever the TC is positive. This trick works only if the dealer is consistent (and you are not asked to leave the casino), but if it does succeed you may never have to play during a poor TC at that table again.
51. Never bad-mouth a dealer about poor cards you may receive. Honest dealers have no control over which cards come out at any particular time. There is no point in alienating dealers; in fact, there are good reasons to keep them on your side. If a dealer likes you, he may overlook the fact that you could very well be a counter, and consequently may not signal a floor person to turn up the heat.
52. There is no need to continue counting once you see the shuffle card come out. This is especially true if you are at first base and have finished playing out your hand, or anywhere at the table and are sitting with a pat total. Take this opportunity to casually gaze around the casino, or just relax. It’s important not always to seem interested in precisely which cards other players get.
53. As your blackjack “vacation” nears an end, you can afford to be less diligent in your “act” to avoid being barred. After all, you will likely not be excluded from all the casinos during your last day or two, no matter how blatantly obvious your counting becomes. Being less paranoid will also enable you to range your bets more aggressively and you can concentrate upon playing under these optimum conditions only.
54. If you are ever asked by floor personnel to leave a casino, do so without a fuss. You might innocently ask, “What did I do wrong?” but don’t make a scene. If you leave quietly you will no doubt be able to return unnoticed during the next shift, but if you create a lasting unfavorable impression as a know-it-all card-casing wiseguy you can lass your future anonymity there goodbye.
55. Do not hesitate to double soft 19s or soft 20s versus 5s or 6s whenever the TC is greater than 5, despite the often near-violent protestations that will inevitably ensue. Well-intentioned dealers and fellow players alike will try their best to save you from these “foolish” plays. When you insist upon holding your course, watch them wag their heads and smile piteously. After the dealer busts, however, try to ignore their comments about how lucky you were. In one sense, they will be right: The “luckiest” players are, indeed, the ones who know the most about the game and play it according to correct MBS.
56. When the TC goes very positive, feel free to range your bets somewhat wider when playing shoe games, since the dealer will rarely employ a preferential shuffle until the plastic shuffle card actually appears. You may be risking a little heat from the floor, but it could be well worth it. An unusually large bet placed abruptly during a single- or double-deck game more easily prompts a shuffle, since the cards are held in the dealer’s hands and shuffling is more of an arbitrary decision.
57. Be a patient winner rather than a hasty loser. Keep in mind that the normal win-rate for the dealer is 47% of total hands played, while the player’s win-rate is only 43% even under favorable playing conditions. Pushes will occur approximately 10% of the time (see Silberstang’s Winning Blackjack for the Serious Player, page 141). Although you should always expect to lose more hands than you win, you make money because of the options available to you that the dealer cannot exercise. You can double, split, or take insurance when the odds are in your favor. You can surrender, too, and only lose half your bet.
And don’t forget about blackjacks giving you 3-to-2 payoffs; therefore, unlike the dealer you make an extra half-bet on all such naturals. You can always get more money out on the table whenever you have the advantage. Ironically, by losing more hands than you win, you can still end up ahead even without counting the cards, simply by playing BS correctly and biding your time.
58. When using the traditional Hi-Low counting system, remember that your TC is not completely reliable for making insurance decisions. In a single-deck game, for example, an RC of 4 can produce a TC of 13 or more. This could be very misleading, since the remaining cards might all be non-T’s! Although unlikely to occur, such a situation would obviously result in improper insurance-taking advice. This is a weakness in the Hi-Low system, so you need to place insurance bets somewhat conservatively. To be absolutely certain of making proper insurance wagers, you need to keep an Ace side-count and be prepared to adjust the TC accordingly or learn to implement Thorp’s Ten-count strategy flawlessly.
59. If it takes you hours getting to and from the casino which has the best playing conditions e.g., the Vegas Club in downtown Las Vegas from the Luxor, which is high on the Strip your playing time there will be obviously reduced, and you may not be as mentally sharp while you are there. A casino that has slightly less liberal rules but is closer to your hotel room is usually the smarter choice overall.
60. Flat betting even though you are playing proper MBS will not win you more money in the long run than merely correct bet-ranging played according to ordinary BS, unless you are Wonging or being very conservative and playing, for example, with a TC of only + 3 or more.
61. Doubling 11 vs A is a good idea in single-deck games, especially if your hand consists of 5,6 instead of, say, 9,2. The 5 and 6 are both cards that you do not want remaining in the deck, because they would hurt you on a double-down. The 9 in your hand is a card that could be able to help you almost as much as a T, so chances of a good double are reduced when you are already holding a 9.
62. “What you don’t know can’t hurt you,” the old saw goes. In blackjack, however, it’s precisely what you don’t know that hurts you the most! Only by playing optimally can you obtain the greatest advantage. Being a skilled counter and being knowledgeable about proper MBS plays is the only sure path to definitive playing and winning.
63. Never more than double the size of your last bet. No matter what the count soars to, it is too risky to draw undue attention to yourself by ranging your wagers up too drastically.
64. According to Lawrence Revere’s Playing Blackjack As a Business, page 118, you are better off simply playing perfect BS than using any count system if you are occasionally making playing errors. In other words, if you’re planning on beating the casino game, you have to make the effort to follow the rules and do it right. Misplaying one hand in twenty is enough to eliminate any player’s edge.
65. To virtually remove all risk from the game, the prerequisites for the nongambler are:
a. Count perfectly.
b. Range bets correctly.
c. Implement MBS flawlessly.
d. Never play negative TC’s.
e. Guess at nothing.
66. In games that are dealt down, don’t make any effort to hide your cards. It can’t possibly help you in any way, and it only hurts other counters when you treat your hands as if you were playing poker.
67. Overbetting is the easiest road to failure. Never do it, even though it is often tempting. You overbet when you (a) play at tables with minimums that are too high (your minimum bet should be no more than 5% of your session stake), (b) overestimate your advantage, and therefore your bet is not appropriately related to your chances of winning according to the Kelly Criterion, or (c) bet more than 2% of your total bankroll on any one hand (no matter how high the TC), a practice that can quickly lead to gambler’s ruin.
68. Although luck is always a factor in winning, remember that it is skill alone that will allow you to prevail in the long run. Luck is fickle; that you will win adhering to MBS plays is a fact. Avoid the temptation of becoming a VIP Viscerally Influenced Player.
69. Do not walk around with a large roll of $100 bills, even if you are a big player. Skilled pickpockets abound who can relieve you of the whole wad without your slightest suspicion or knowledge. All casinos provide free-of-charge lines of credit from which you can draw playing markers for whatever amount you wish.
70. Avoid playing with “shills” whenever possible. A shill is a player hired by the casino primarily to attract customers to the table, to perpetuate poor playing habits, or to interfere with counters. Since they play with only house money, they consequently never tip the dealers. Shills never double or split, but they always take insurance. They often stand on all soft totals, and sometimes even stiff totals versus the dealer’s pat up-cards. Splitting T’s (and even 5s) is a common practice for shills, and they will often surrender perfectly good hands for no apparent reason. (They are often viewed as merely “inexperienced” players, which may explain where the superstition about not playing with beginners originated.) Shills can be used to disrupt the concentration of suspected counters one of the many forms of “heat” that can be arbitrarily applied by casino personnel. A shill must leave the table if requested by a legitimate player, but simply finding another table for yourself is more advisable since only a counter would care.
71. Learn to look relaxed and happy while you play, even though your brain may be racing. If the casino personnel finger you as a counter, you may not live to fight another day (metaphorically speaking, of course).
72. The following levels of play illustrate the recommended stages through which all blackjack players should ascend as they move from beginner to expert. The beauty of the progession lies in the fact that the skills are cumulative; each succeeding level builds upon the one before.
Level 1: Play BS (perhaps imperfectly) while flat betting the lowest table minimums available. Level 2: Implement a side-count of As, 5s, or preferably the Hi-Low plus-count wagering (see chapter 6), while maintaining correct BS plays. Level 3: Use the Hi-Low RC bet-ranging guide (see chapter 6) and play your hands according to BS. Level 4: Incorporate sound money management advice with appropriate Hi-Low TC wagering and continue adhering to 100% correct BS plays. Level 5: After proper Hi-Low TC wagering, use MBS-2 integers (see chapter 7) in order to play most hands optimally. Level 6: Utilize advanced Hi-Low MBS-4 and MBS-5 indices to govern all plays after placing correct TC wagers; an Ace side-count is necessary to make informed insurance decisions. Level 7: Follow all of the playing advice offered within this text, and learn to implement a more efficient counting system, which necessarily includes various side-counts. (Note: This is a truly professional level, which cannot be achieved by most players. Systems more powerful than Hi-Low necessarily sacrifice simplicity for minute financial gains.)
73. Where shuffling machines are not in use, it is sometimes possible to track “clumps” of high or low cards through the shuffling process and gain an advantage during the next shoe by knowing roughly where to expect them. Being the player allowed to cut with the shuffle card is a big advantage when using this method.
74. Playing during off-hours can usually improve your chances of finding favorable conditions. From 4:00 to 10:00 A.M. and from 4:00 to 6:00 P.M., most tables are less crowded, thereby allowing you more hands per session and possibly some unmolested one-on-one play.
75. Wherever dealers are still required to peek at their hole cards, a “double-take” when they have a T showing can often be an advantage. Since small cards more closely resemble Aces, dealers sometimes have to look twice or extra carefully to be sure they do not have blackjacks. If you notice such a double-peek or unusual inspection you may be wise to stand with all your stiff totals and double on all 10s and lis under these circumstances. The dealer will likely have to draw an additional card and end up busting.
76. Simply by placing a few small bets for the dealer after big payoffs or blackjacks, you can easily ingratiate yourself. I have had friendly “toked” dealers begin showing me the burn cards without being asked. On more than one occasion, when they were showing T’s as their up-cards, I have had such dealers routinely skip quickly past my stiff totals to the next player. The first time this happened, I objected, since I had obviously planned to take a hit. “Do you really want another card?” a cute little Asian dealer asked with a twinkle in her eye. I caught myself just in time, remembering that she had already peeked at her hole card. Sure enough, she flipped over a 6 and proceeded to bust. When you are winning and are sharing the wealth a little, the dealers want you to keep on winning and playing at their table. Unfortunately, some players are as tight as bark to the proverbial tree, and suffer because of it.
77. To achieve the maximum advantage from counting, range your bets as widely as the table limits allow within your 2% guideline. A ten-unit spread is generally acceptable, although an even greater range is theoretically better. With a great enough spread you never need to ask to be dealt out of any game because of poor counts, for you will have an insignificant sum wagered; however, when the TC’s are very positive you stand to make the big bucks.
78. Don’t always begin each shoe with minimum wagers. This is a practice beginning counters ideally follow, and it will label you as such immediately. Occasionally start with a bet of one-third your maximum wager and adjust it up or down from there as the TC develops.
79. Try not to play at any one table for more than an hour, especially if you are winning. Bosses are paid to notice when the dealers’ chip trays are being depleted, and you will likely be marked as a winner even though you may be hiding chips successfully. If you change tables or pus continuously, your play is more apt to go unnoticed.
60. Never complain about anything, except perhaps an incorrect payoff to yourself. If necessary, do this quietly and politely, and if it happens more than once, move to another dealer.
81. In tournament (or mini-tournament) play, remember that luck, money management, and playing skill determine the winners in exactly that order. Even if you are fortunate enough to win a mini-tournament, your “fifteen minutes of fame” may be sufficient to bring your face to the attention of casino personnel and destroy any future anonymity there.
82. Listen to, but don’t heed, dealers’ advice on how to play your hand. If they really knew how to play the game, they would be on the other side of the table making a lot more than minimum wage plus tips.
83. Whenever you have ambiguous playing options such as whether to split or double, the best decision may not always be clear from MBS tables. If surrender is not an option, the highest priority is usually given to splitting over doubling. Using the 4,4 versus 6 as an example, the index for doubling the 8 is 2, but the index for splitting the pair is 2. Therefore, when the TC is 2 or more, split the 4s instead of doubling your 8. The obvious exception is a pair of 5s. When not surrendering or splitting 8s or 7s, stand with your 16s and hit your 14s on any positive count.
84. Do not play Spanish 21. In chapter 2 this game was described as the most reprehensible variation of blackjack that is currently offered to unsuspecting players. Its rules are much more liberal than those of normal blackjack, and it offers many special bonuses as well. So why is this blackjack look-alike so deadly? As the proverbial gypsy maintains, “The answer is in the cards!” Unbeknownst to most players of Spanish 21, all the 10s have been removed from the shoe! From chapter 6 it is obvious how important big cards are to the player. Therefore, beginning each shoe with a TC of -4 represents insurmountable odds.
85. After being away from the game for a month or so, you will likely be rustier than you may realize. Review MBS charts and practice counting before your return to casino action. Even if you normally play at $25 tables, break yourself in at the lowest-minimum tables available for your first session, or until you are sure that you are up to speed once more.
86. Where “multiple-action” games are offered (described in chapter 2), a little back-counting (Wonging) can be a boon for counters. Since this game looks odd, it is only natural for regular blackjack players to observe a few rounds before sitting down. When the count is high, by playing the three first-base positions you are virtually assured of drawing beneficial cards even at a full table.
87. Always try to chose single- or double-deck games over shoe games if the rules are similar. Although it is easier for the dealer to cheat when cards are held in the hand, these games are easier to track accurately. Beginning counters find it simpler to estimate the TC when playing with only one or two decks. And, if you lose track of the count completely, you won’t have to wait as long for the next shuffle in order to start another RC. Even an experienced counter can find himself scrambling to tally up Hi-Low point totals when a shoe-dealer flips over a blackjack at a full table and immediately begins scooping up the bets and cards with both hands. You are also more likely to get much higher TC’s in these games than with shoes.
88. Make sure that you don’t stand out in any way while in a casino. Wearing expensive jewelery or clothing just draws attention to yourself, and you are not there to impress anyone. To remain inconspicuous you need to look like the average loser; otherwise, you will be seen as a winner and will be more apt to end up getting barred from play.
89. If you cannot remember precisely a specific MBS integer that you need, it is better to guess at it than to play BS alone. After all, MBS plays are never exact at the best of times, since all TC’s are only estimates themselves. However, never modify a BS play without very good MBS reasoning to justify it.
90. As a counter, you will generally have your biggest wagers out near the end of a shoe, but you can never be sure exactly when the dealer will be forced to shuffle if the shuffle card is not visible. When the shuffle does come, in order to disguise the necessary reduction in your bet you could possibly play two spots for the first round, if the table isn’t crowded. This not only discourages passing players from joining the game during a shuffle (since fewer boxes will appear to be open), but it will actually increase your odds of winning on a neutral deck.
Spreading less than half your last large bet into two adjacent boxes makes it less obvious that you have drastically cut back your wager. Otherwise, you are wiser to proceed with a fairly large single bet on the freshly shuffled neutral shoe, at least occasionally, and especially if the pit boss is observing your play at all. Similarly, be careful not to reduce your bet too much between hands just because the count goes cold. Gradual changes in all bet-ranging is the key. It can avoid getting you identified as a counter and subsequently removed from the game.
91. Avoid single-deck games that employ “high” dealers. A dealer using an awkward close-to-the-chest style of delivery could be a cheat. It is easier for crooked dealers to go completely undetected when dealing “seconds” by holding the deck at about the players’ eye level.
92. Utilizing the information contained in this text, you will not actually be gambling when you play blackjack. Rather, you may think of the game as an investment opportunity that can provide a good rate of return on your money. Every business venture has an element of risk; few offer overall odds so firmly in your favor as skillfully played blackjack.
93. Do not be fooled into thinking that you can beat this game simply by finding a dumping table and playing there. A dumping table is one where the dealer is busting or the players are winning more than usual. Just the opposite is apt to occur if and when you join the game.
There is no reason to suspect that winning (or losing) trends will continue, unless you enjoy the advantage of the specific probability information available only to counters.
94. Clump tracking is a counting procedure in which you take note of bunches of high or low cards as they appear during the game and follow them through the shuffle in order to know when an advantage or disadvantage is likely to occur in the next shoe. For example, a counter notices that an extremely poor RC occurs during the first deck dealt from a shoe, say, -15. This means that the cards in the discard tray now contain fifteen more high cards than others. By paying close attention to this favorable group of cards while the dealer is snuffling at the end of the shoe, the counter knows approximately when they will appear in the following shoe. Depending upon the complexity of the shuffling pattern used, an observant player can use this information to range his bets upward at the appropriate time. If the counter gets the opportunity to cut the cards, he can often force the desired clump of cards to the front of the next shoe, and begin betting with higher than normal wagers.
Clump tracking is generally not worth the effort to learn nowadays. Although still useful on rare occasions, it is easily thwarted by casinos by utilizing a number of simple shuffling variations: (a) By using dual discard trays and alternately placing the discards into them, dealers effectively break up most clumps; any that are left are nearly impossible to follow through a shuffle, (b) If the dealer “strips” while shuffling, all but the most extreme clumps are similarly destroyed. (Stripping moves whole groups of cards from the top portion of a stack to the bottom without actually shuffling them.) (c) The “stutter-shuffle” involves the dealer taking as much as half-deck picks from stacks already shuffled once, and shuffling them with the unshuffled discards. The stuttering process is continued throughout the entire six decks, making clump tracking very difficult indeed, if not impossible, (d) The most popular method of countering clump tracking is the introduction of shuffling machines, which also speed up the game and make all types of deck stacking (the illegal practice of deliberately arranging cards in a particular order) more difficult for dealers.
95. Beginning counters are constantly losing the RC; it also happens to experienced players when they are tired or distracted. If this is a recurring problem for you, use one of your chips to physically indicate how much the count is up (and another to show how much the count is down, if necessary) after each round of play. Turn the chip-face to correspond with the face of a clock. Since players are constantly fiddling with their chips anyway, this practice will go unnoticed.
96. Use “match-play” and other casino coupons at every opportunity. Not only do they represent free money; more important, you will resemble a typical “novice” tourist-player whenever you pull them out. After all, “a professional player would never stoop to such an undignified practice,” the pit bosses think. Coupon play virtually assures anonymous heat-free playing conditions.
97. Don’t be the highest roller at your table. Everyone notices the biggest bettors. Instead, if possible, find a table where someone is betting wildly and extravagantly. The size of your wagers will go completely unobserved there.
98. If you need to increase your wager, never raise it more than a unit or two while the pit boss is observing your play. With a little panache it may be possible to parlay your last win without the move seeming suspicious. (”Parlaying” is equivalent to “letting it all ride” after a win.) Playing two spots instead of one if space permits is also an acceptable method of getting twice the money on the table without drawing undue attention to the increased size of your wager.
99. Choosing low-limit tables (especially when they are not crowded) doesn’t mean you will not win just as much there. You can always raise your bets in order to take advantage of high TC’s when the occasions arise. They are financially safer, too; if it means that you can play more hands at low-minimum tables, you will be less likely to experience “ruin” by using many small bets rather than fewer large wagers.
100. By updating your financial position after each session, you can more properly determine your allowable bet range for future sessions. Also, watching your bankroll increase is a real comfort during those inevitable losing streaks.
101. Read this blog from page to page again at least once!

MBS Practice Exercises

Irfan — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 13:17:46 +0000

Learning MBS is a slow, tedious process, but well worth the effort. Try to be patient with yourself. The following exercises were specially designed for your MBS practice. In each case, the relevant Hi-Low TC is listed. Always assume that you are playing shoe games that follow the rules normally found, but where surrender is not allowed unless indicated.

In each exercise, carefully consider your various hands versus the up-cards shown in order to determine the correct plays as presented on the MBS-4 chart, according to the appropriate TC. The exercises get progressively more difficult, so that you may more easily advance to your desired level of MBS expertise. Remember that you modify basic playing strategy only when warranted by the TC; otherwise the correct play is always determined by BS alone. For most efficient learning, cover the answers until after you have decided upon your play in each case. Revealing the correct response then tends to reinforce your learning immediately.

Practice doing the exercises forward and backward, until you can achieve 100% accuracy at the level of your choice. It is strongly recommended that MBS exercises G and H be mastered as well, since the popular surrender option is becoming much more widespread and can save you a bundle when used properly.

The following abbreviations continue to be used in the exercises:

H = Hit D = Double-down

S = Stand G = Give up (i.e., surrender)

P=sPlit

MBS Practice Exercise A When the TC = +1, and no surrender offered

Your Hand Up-card BS Your Hand Up-card BS

7,5	3	S	5, 3	4	H
2,7	2	D	9,7	T	S
A, 3	4	D	8,8	9	P
2, A	7	H	5,6	A	D
A, 8	6	D	5,5	A	H
6, 6	4	P	8,4	4	S
A, 6	2	D	7, A	2	D
4,8	2	H	A, 2	4	H
T5	T	H	6,T	A	H
A, 8	5	D	A, 7	A	S

MBS Practice Exercise B When the TC = 1, and no surrender offered

Your Hand Up-card BS Your Hand Up-card BS

6,7	2	S	4,5	3	D
9, 3	4	H	A, 7	A	H
X6	T	H	8, A	6	S
7, A	2	S	2,6	6	H
5,5	2	D	7, A	5	D
X5	9	H	6,6	5	P
A, 4	5	D	A, 2	7	H
XT	6	S	2,2	5	P
7,3	6	D	8,3	5	D
A, 7	4	D	9,3	2	H

MBS Practice Exercise C-l When the TC = + 3, and no surrender offered

jr Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
3,5	5	D	8,4	2	S
4,4	3	P	A, 8	3	s
2,7	7	D	5, A	3	D
A, 8	4	D	9,9	7	P
9,9	A	P	5,3	6	D
2, T	2	S	6,5	A	D
A, 2	4	D	XT	6	S
15	T	D	6,T	A	S
A, A	A	P	4,5	2	D
7,5	3	s	A, 7	2	D

MBS Practice Exercise C-2 When the TC = +3, and no surrender offered

Your Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
3,5	5	D	8,4	2	S
A, 4	5	D	A, 2	7	H
9,7	A	S	5,5	A	H
6,6	4	P	8,4	4	S
A, 6	2	D	7, A	2	D
5, A	3	D	A, 8	4	D
9,9	7	P	9,9	A	P
XT	6	S	7,9	9	H
A, 7	4	D	9,3	2	S
7,5	3	S	A, 9	6	S

MBS Practice Exercise D When the TC = -3, and no surrender offered

Your Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
5,4	5	D	4,5	4	H
2,8	8	D	5,5	9	H
X4	2	S	6,5	T	D
A, 3	5	H	3, A	6	D
4, A	5	D	8,8	A	H
3,3	2	H	6,6	3	P
7,2	3	H	6,4	9	H
9,9	2	S	9,9	3	P
8,8	T	P	A, 7	3	S
7, A	4	D	A, 5	4	H

MBS Practice Exercise E When the TC = + 5, and no surrender offered

Your Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
2,8	A	D	2,6	4	D
3,4	6	H	*T,6*	9	S
A, 7	A	S	TT	5	P
A, 9	5	D	8,4	2	S
3,5	4	D	5, T	A	S
4, A	3	D	A, 8	3	D
A, 7	A	S	6,4	T	D
7,2	8	H	A, 3	3	H
A, 7	7	S	9, A	6	D
9,9	A	P	A, 5	3	D

MBS Practice Exercise F When the TC = 5, and no surrender offered

Your Hand Up-card BS Your Hand Up-card BS

9,9	4	P	9,9	5	P
2,7	6	D	5, 6	9	H
T2	6	H	3, T	5	S
A, 5	5	D	5, A	4	H
6,6	5	P	6, 6	4	H
2,2	3	P	2,2	2	H
T3	6	S	4, T	3	H
4, T	4	S	T7	A	S
A, 6	4	D	A, 2	6	H
9,9	6	P	4,4	6	H

MBS Practice Exercise G When the TC = +5, and surrendering is offered

Your Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
4, T	T	G	T5	9	G
8,8	9	P	7,8	8	H
8,8	A	P	*T,7*	A	S
9,7	9	G	7,7	T	G
5, T	T	G	T6	A	G
6,T	8	G	A, 9	5	D
6,7	A	H	7,7	A	G
8,8	T	P	9,7	A	G
T4	A	G	X5	7	H
8,8	8	G	5, T	A	G

MBS Practice Exercise H When the TC = 5 and surrender is offered

Your Hand	Up-card	BS	Your Hand	Up-card	BS
8,8	T	P	16	T	H
4, T	A	H	8,8	9	P
15	T	H	7, T	A	S
13	A	H	8,8	A	G
9,9	6	P	T3	4	H
9,7	8	H	8,8	8	P
6, T	T	H	6, T	9	H
7,8	9	H	8,8	A	G
16	A	H	7,8	A	H
14	T	H	T7	A	S

Congratulations! Rather than merely thinking of yourself as an expert card-counter and successful player, having mastered MBS play you can now rightly consider yourself as much of a threat to the casinos as that most dreaded of patrons the blackjack professional. You will, no doubt, proceed to make even more money from the game, because “good fortune” is now sure to accompany you to any blackjack table in the world. It’s a strange fact that the more one knows about this game, the “luckier” one tends to be. So, good luck! You’ve certainly earned it!

Modified Basic Strategy Chart 5 (MBS-5)

Irfan — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:16:45 +0000

The table below indicates when to surrender Since no casinos offer “early” surrender any more, surrender always means “late” surrender nowadays. When offered, TC surrendering nearly always takes precedence over every other possible play. More and more casinos are allowing the surrender option, since it is usually an extra moneymaker for them when used by unknowledgeable players.

The DEALER is showing a:

YOU have:	7	8	9	T	A
5	H	H	H	17	H
6	H	H	20	18	H
7	H	H	H	19	H
12	H	H	20	14	H
13	H	19	13	7	H
14	16	12	6	3	5
15	10	6	2	0	2
16 (not 8s)	12	4	0	-2	-1
17	S	S	13	12	S

(Surrender only if the TC equals or is greater than the integers shown above. Otherwise follow the usual MBS plays.)

MBS-5 Notes

1. Player totals of 5, 6, and 7 include soft totals.

2. The sole exception to surrender precedence is 8,8: (i) 8s versus 9 always requires a split no matter what the TC is; (ii) 8s versus T are to be surrendered only if the TC equals or is greater than 8 (see MBS-4); (iii) 8s versus A should be surrendered rather than split only when the TC is less than -2 (see MBS-4).

Many beginning players worry, completely unnecessarily, that they do not have 100% recollection of all the correct MBS indices at their immediate disposal. It is not at all vital regardless of which MBS chart you have mastered, for three main reasons:

1. All MBS plays are just educated guesses; after all, TC’s are merely estimates at best.

2. Playing MBS according to strategy numbers that are close, but not precisely the correct indices results in such extremely minor losses that they may truly be considered negligible.

3. You will still be winning money by simply following BS alone while you continue to learn the MBS indices in more detail.

The most important thing that any player can achieve from this chapter is an understanding of the MBS principles involved. Only then can one’s intuition or “gut feelings” be a trusted guide through uncertain plays. However, the best rule of thumb is: Never go against BS unless you have a good reason! When you know that you should, use your existing knowledge of the MBS charts, to whatever degree of proficiency you have attained, in order to make the most out of every situation by consistently following only intelligent playing decisions.

MBS-4

Irfan — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 13:16:01 +0000

For those very serious readers who may be interested, however, a fairly extensive MBS-4 table is included below. It was compiled by collating information from a wide range of reputable sources. Where discrepancies between various tables occured, the integers finally chosen were “averaged” to arrive at the compromised figures shown on the chart. A conscious effort was made to err on the “conservative” side whenever possible. Keep in mind that absolute accuracy is never possible when dealing with MBS plays at any time, since they are necessarily just an “estimate” at best. After all, TC’s can only be determined by “guessing” how many unseen decks remain in the shoe.

In any case, this MBS-4 table is definitely the most comprehensive amalgamation of all MBS advice presently available from all known blackjack literature for Hi-Low TC’s ranging between 20 and + 20. The reader may be completely assured that every effort was exerted to make this the most reliable MBS data that could reasonably be required by any conscientious blackjack player today.

Nevertheless, for even further precise plays, see Wong’s Professional Blackjack, which includes tables showing such minutiae as how every specific two-card total should be played in order to wring out the last possible drop of advantage for the dedicated professional. For example, playing in a four-deck shoe game in which the dealer hits soft 17, if your 7 consists of 4,3 you should double versus a 4 when the TC is 11 or more, but if your 7 is comprised of 5,2 then a TC of at least 12 is required before the double is warranted. Again, keep in mind that this knowledge would be useful less than once every 1.6 million hands on average. Even for the most serious of players, learning such a sophisticated level of MBS play is impossible to justify, but the reader should be aware that the research has been done and that the information is available, just in case.

Modified Basic Strategy Table 4 (MBS-4)

For Hi-Low TC’s in shoe games where dealers must hit soft 17s, and where doubling-down on any two cards is allowed even after splitting. No surrender offered.

The DEALER is showing a:

YOU have:	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T	A
5	H	20	15	12	13	H	H	H	H	H
6	H	20	15	II	12	H	H	H	H	H
7	H	16	12	9	8	H	H	H	H	H
8	13	9	5	3	2	14	H	H	H	H
9	1	-1	-2	-4	-5	3	7	H	H	H
10	-9	-10	-II	-12	-14	-7	-4	-1	4	4
II	-12	-13	-14	-15	-17	-10	-7	-4	-3	1

(Double, if the TC equals or is greater than, and hit if the TC is less than, the integers in the section above.)

12	2	1	0	-1	-2	H	H	H	H	H
13	-1	-2	-4	-5	-5	H	H	H	H	15
14	-3	-4	-5	-8	-10	17	H	H	H	9
15	-6	-8	-9	-10	-12	10	10	8	3	5
16	-10	-II	-12	-13	-15	9	7	4	0	3
17	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	S	-5
I8sf	-15	-16	-15	-16	-16	s -	-16	H	H	1*

(Stand, if the TC equals or is greater than, but hit if the TC is less than, the integers in the section above.)

A, 2	12	7	2	-1	-2	H	H	H	H H
A, 3	14	6	1	-2	-4	H	H	H	H H
A, 4	18	5	-1	-4	-II	H	H	H	H H
A, 5	15	3	-2	-5	-14	H	H	H	H H
A, 6	1	-2	-5	-10	-15	II*	H	H	H H
A, 7	1	-1	-5	-9	-14	20	S	H	*H (1)**
A, 8	8	5	3	1	1	17	S	S	S S
A, 9	10	8	6	5	5	14	S	S	S S

(Double, only if the TC equals or is greater than the integers shown in this “soft doubling” section; otherwise, hit or stand as BS dictates. The possible exception is A,7 versus A; stand if the TC is I or better.)

The DEALER is showing a:
YOU have:	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T	A
2,2	-4	-5	-8	-10	-12	-20	6	H	H	H
3,3	-2	-5	-8	-10	-12	-20	4	H	H	H
4,4	14	6	3	-1	-2	H	H	H	H	H
6,6	-1	-3	-4	-6	-9	H	H	H	H	H
7,7	-II	-12	-14	-15	-17	-20	H	H	H	H
8,8	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	(8)	-2
9,9	-2	-3	-5	~S	-6	3	-9 -	10	S	3
TT	II	8	6	5	4	13	20	S	S	S
A, A	-12	-13	-14	-14	-15	-10	-9 -	-8	-9	-5

(Split, only if the TC equals or is greater than the integers in the section above. Otherwise hit or stand as BS dictates. The one exception: Do not split 8s versus T if the TC is 8 or more; when surrender is not an option, just stand instead.)

MBS-4 Notes

1. Only Revere, Humble, and Cooper advise players to stand with A,7 (or any soft 18) versus an Ace when the TC is I or more. Cardoza alone suggests doubling A,6 versus 7 if the TC = 11 or more. Although these plays are reasonable and should likely be followed, they are listed as “questionable” since there is no corroborating data to support their claims.

2. Another obscure blackjack writer, Silberstang, recommends standing with A,7 or 7,7 versus 10 with any positive count, but his “proof” is completely unsubstantiated, and since these plays seem somewhat less rational they should probably be ignored.

3. Flat betting (same-sized bet every time) even while playing proper MBS will not win you more money in the long run than merely correct TC bet-ranging played with ordinary BS, unless you are being somewhat conservative and playing, for example, only with TC’s of + 3 or more (see Griffen’s Theory of Blackjack). Therefore, to gain the full advantage of your MBS knowledge, you must also combine it with the TC bet-ranging outlined in chapter 6.

4. It should be noted that when the TC is 4 or more, insurance is generally a good bet; however, in shoe games where many Aces may have already appeared (thereby canceling a similar number of small cards in the count), a TC of 3 or less can often justify taking advantage of the insurance proposition. Employing Thorp’s Ten-count system precisely is the only way to be absolutely sure of when accepting the insurance wager is a good bet.

MBS-3

Irfan — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:15:09 +0000

The following table (MBS-3) is probably enough MBS for most players to learn. It shows all the correct playing indices for TC’s that range from 5 to +5, and this represents over 95% of all TC’s normally encountered in any six-deck shoe game.

Modified Basic Strategy Table 3 (MBS-3)

For Hi-Low TC’s from 5 to + 5, in shoe games where dealers hit soft 17s and where doubling-down on any two cards is allowed even after splitting. No surrender offered.

The DEALER is showing a:

YOU have:	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T	A
8	H	H	5	3	2	H	H	H	H	H
9	1	-1	-2	-4	-5	3	H	H	H	H
10	D	D	D	D	D	D	-4	-1	4	4
II	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	-4	-3	1

(Double, if the TC equals or is greater than, and hit if the TC is less than, the integers in the section above.)

2	2	1	0	-1	-2	H	H	H	H	H
3	-1	-2	-4	-s	-5	H	H	H	H	H
4	-3	-4	-5	s	S	H	H	H	H	H
5	S	S	s	s	S	H	H	H	3	5
6	S	s	s	s	s	H	H	4	0	3
7	s	s	s	s	s	S	S	S	S	-5
8sf	s	s	s	s	s	S	S	H	H	1′

(Stand, if the TC equals or is greater than, but hit if the TC is less than, the integers in the section above.)

A, 2	H	H	2	-1	-2	H	H	H	H	H
A, 3	H	H	1	-2	-4	H	H	H	H	H
A, 4	H	5	-1	-4	D	H	H	H	H	H
A, 5	H	3	-2	-5	D	H	H	H	H	H
A, 6	1	-2	-5	D	D	H	H	H	H	H
A, 7	1	-1	-5	D	D	S	S	H	H	1*
A, 8	S	5	3	1	1	S	S	S	S	S
A, 9	S	S	S	5	5	S	S	S	S	s

(Double, only if the TC equals or is greater than the integers in this “soft doubling” section above. Otherwise hit or stand as BS dictates. The exception is A,7 versus A; stand if the TC is I or better)

The DEALER is showing a:

YOU have:	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T	A
2,2	-4	-5	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
3,3	-2	-5	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
4,4	H	H	3	-1	-2	H	H	H	H	H
6,6	-1	-3	-4	P	P	H	H	H	H	H
7,7	P	P	P	P	P	P	H	H	H	H
8,8	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P
9,9	-2	-3	-5	-5	P	3	P	P	S	3
XT	S	S	S	5	4	S	S	S	S	S
A, A	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	-5

(Split, only if the TC equals or is greater than the integers shown in the section above.)

MBS-3 Notes

1. With a TC of 4 or more, insurance is justified.

2. If surrendering is allowed: (a) Surrender 14 versus 10 if the TC = 3 or more, and 14 versus A if the TC = 5 or more, (b) Surrender your 15 versus 9 or A when the TC = 2 or more, and 15 versus T if the TC is at all positive, (c) Surrender 16 versus 9, T or A with any positive count, and 16 (but not 8,8) versus 8 if the TC = 4 or more.

3. Splitting 4s is always preferable to doubling the 8, unless doubling after splitting is not allowed.

4. Notice that T’s are to be split sometimes, contrary to popular belief. Do not resplit T’s, however, if the TC falls below the respective integers shown because of cards drawn to a previous split.

5. Never split 5s regardless of how high the TC may climb.

6. Soft 18 (listed as “I8sf” above) is often obtained after doubling is no longer an option. It is included here, since it is the only soft total that has a potential MBS, depending upon which sources are accepted. Only Revere, Humble, and Cooper advise players to stand with A,7 (or any soft 18) versus an Ace when the TC is I or more; therefore, this play must be considered somewhat questionable.

With negative TC’s of 5 or less, it is always interesting to watch noncounting players’ reactions as their splits and double-downs result in extremely weak final totals “stiffs” more often than not. The players’ disgust is only exacerbated by the fact that the dealers seem to more consistently end up with pat hands (not surprising, with such a surplus of small cards eager to pop out of the shoe), perhaps after originally showing only lowly 5s or 6s. Even noncounters realize that a dealer will normally bust when starting with these poor up-cards, so they are prematurely anticipating their winnings; imagine their incredible chagrin as the dealer proceeds to draw strong totals, often 20s or 21s. What these unfortunate folk do not know is that, with only two decks remaining, a -5 count means that there are ten more small cards than big ones available to be dealt. Rather than being shocked at their resultant stiff hands and the pat hands of the dealers, the players should be much more surprised if anything other than these results occurred. Then again, they couldn’t possibly know what is apt to happen at such times, being completely unaware of the count as they are.

If you are not prepared to commit the whole MBS-3 table to memory, estimating what the numbers might be and playing accordingly is better than remaining totally ignorant of the best plays. You will still be making money from the game while you gradually increase your MBS repertoire. As with most things in life, expect to get out of these MBS charts what you are willing to put into them. In actual fact, you will gain many more rewards than merely the time and energy spent in learning these MBS integers would seem to justify.

A short visit to your respective men’s or ladies’ room when the TC is very bad will obviously save you money, and it is much easier than learning a myriad of correct negative-TC MBS plays. However, if you intend to sit down and play continuously through shoe after shoe regardless of the count, you may be wise to obtain at least a passing aquaintance with the more complete MBS-4 chart that follows. By understanding the reasoning behind the indices shown there, you will soon be able to approximate them fairly accurately, even if you do not learn them 100%.

The larger the integers that appear upon MBS tables, the less practical use they are to you, since TC’s reach these figures so rarely. Strangely enough, the more decks used, the more apt the TC’s are to remain within narrower limits. Simply abiding by BS, instead of learning and implementing 100% correct MBS for bigger numbers encountered on a chart, represents only a very small percentage loss to the player. For example, knowing that you should double a two-card total of 5 against the dealer’s 3 when the TC = 20 or more is obviously of limited value. One can expect to be in this situation approximately once every 1.6 million hands. For the vast majority of players, it is not worth exerting the effort to memorize such extreme TC ranges.