Myth 4. Always Play Your Hands So That You Win Most Often
This is a not-so-obvious paradox, but BS sometimes requires the player to follow a lower percentage-win strategy in order to maximize overall winnings. For example, suppose as a noncounter you receive an A,7 while the dealer is showing a 6. If you stand with the soft 18 you will win 63% of the time; however, your win percentage will drop to only 59.5% if you double.
Q: What should you do, stand or double-down?
A: Double.
By standing, your win-rate is 26% of your bet (63% 37%, the dealer’s win-rate). By doubling, your win-rate is only 19% (59.5% 40.5%) of your bet, but you will have twice the money out. You can afford to sacrifice a few points off your win-rate in this case. Twenty-six percent of one single bet is obviously not as good as 19% of a wager twice the size. Although you will lose more often by doubling in this case than by standing, you actually win more money in the long run by adhering to BS.
