The 2% Rule
Make sure that you never wager more than 2% of your total blackjack bankroll on any one hand, no matter how favorable the playing conditions may appear. If your bankroll is only $500, you should be playing only at the $1 or $2 tables, and at appropriate times ranging your bets up to $10 as a maximum. If your bankroll is $1000, you should never place a single bet of more than $20. At this level of betting, you will probably make less than $10 an hour, but you will be having fun while you learn. Playing with “scared” money (i.e., money that you are afraid of losing) leeches most of the enjoyment from the game.
Resign yourself to the fact that you can’t have your financial cake and eat it too. If you decide to play within reasonable safety margins, you cannot expect to make a fortune from blackjack overnight. The good news, however, is that you will never lose much by abiding by the 2% Rule. The average counter’s win-rate is only one-and-a-half times his neutral (i.e., minimum) bet per hour, assuming that one can play about fifty hands per hour. Obviously, if you want to make more, you have to risk more. Normally a good player has to play $20 hands for an hour to make $30. At this rate your maximum bets would be $100 or so, which means that you could spare a bankroll of $5,000. In the world of blackjack, as well as in real life, one cannot run with the rabbit and hunt with the hounds.
Not much ventured, not much gained; but are you willing to risk $1,000 to make $30 an hour? There’s no guarantee it’ll be during the next hour, either. The law of large numbers applies here, as outlined in chapter 4. If you play correctly long enough, you will win at least that hourly rate; however, you might lose that much every hour for a day or two before probability theory begins to turn the tide. Test your skills by taking a more conservative approach, especially at first. Play at tables that offer the lowest minimums. You can always increase your neutral wagers as your bankroll builds.
When the count climbs to unexpected heights, it is always tempting for beginning players to “bet a bundle” in order to “make a killing.” However, you must remember that even with TC’s of 10 or more, there is still a significant chance of losing any particular hand. It is unwise to risk an inappropriate amount of your bankroll on any one hand, simply because of greed. Remember the 2% Rule. Wagering more is over-betting, and you will be courting gambler’s ruin, i.e., losing everything. Be satisfied to let your profits build up gradually. Keep in mind that winning blackjack is a slow grind for even the professionals. If you are looking for a get-rich-quick scheme, it is certainly not this game. Remember Epstein’s “minimum boldness” approach from chapter 4: Betting smaller amounts will tend to double your playing stakes more often.
Rest assured that whatever the size of your bets, there will always be players who cavalierly risk twice as much on every wager. Swallow any false pride that may tend to stick in your craw, and resist the temptation to wager more than 2% of your bankroll simply because some goof next to you may be flaunting his wealth by shoving out stacks of green or black chips every hand. Know that the main difference between you and him is that tomorrow you will still have your bankroll, no doubt modestly increased, and that you will still be playing and making money from the game. He may never be seen again.
