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The good news is that the following BS chart is the only one you will ever need to learn in order to win consistently. It shows the absolute best, mathematically proven, correct play for every possible two-card player total versus all possible dealer up-cards, for every shoe game you will ever encounter. These recommended plays are not merely my opinions; they are indisputable. High-speed computers have played out each hand variation randomly millions of times, substantiating the data presented. Understanding this chart, and following it faithfully, can give you an edge (even without the use of any counting system) over all but the most greedy casinos, whose very restrictive rules may still afford them a minuscule advantage.
Other blogs offer page after page of virtually incomprehensible tables, enough to overwhelm even the most determined individual. However, most of their chart variations involve very minor BS adjustments, depending upon dozens of various rule possibilities: for example, whether you are allowed to double-down after splitting; whether you are playing in a single- or double-deck game, as opposed to a shoe; whether surrender is offered; whether the dealer hits soft 17s; or perhaps (as in most casinos outside North America, or local charity games), whether the dealer is required to take a hole card. Confronted with this multitude of mind-boggling charts and tables, an ordinary player can easily become frustrated, and perhaps give up learning any BS whatsoever!
Rest assured that the single chart below is, truly, all you will ever need to know to keep from losing money at blackjack in any casino where reasonably favorable rules apply. Abiding by this 100% correct BS table enables you to win more when you have strong beginning totals and, therefore, an advantage over the house. It also ensures that you will lose less when you draw weak initial cards and the dealer has the advantage. After all, saving money in bad situations is just about as important as winning it in the good ones. Keep in mind that this basic strategy (BS) indicates the definitive, optimum way to play every hand that you can possibly receive, assuming that you have not been tracking (counting) the cards, using one of the systems.
The only bad news regarding BS study is that it does take considerable effort to absorb well enough to employ flawlessly under actual casino conditions. Although learning most of the proper BS plays will obviously tend to improve your game, it is absolutely essential that you know all of the correct plays and follow them relentlessly in order to eliminate the casinos’ advantage. Misplaying as few as one hand in twenty is providing more than enough margin of error to allow them to maintain an insurmountable edge. Also, if you ever hope to win significant amounts of money playing blackjack in the future by learning additional skills such as those presented in later chapters of this blog, becoming completely familiar with BS is your initial foundation step. In short, mastering BS is essential for all aspiring long-term winners. Take the time to absorb BS in its entirety now. It is of paramount importance that BS be thoroughly digested and incorporated into your daily play. Forget about hunches, intuition, or “gut feelings” and merely follow BS precisely and consistently. Without knowing something about the composition of the remaining cards to be dealt, BS is always your best course of action. Learn it, use it, and reap the benefits for the rest of your life. It is definitely well worth the effort.
This BS best suits a six-deck shoe, where doubling any two cards (even after splitting) and surrender are both permitted, i.e., the most common game offered today. This single chart was carefully compiled from a myriad of others because it alone allows for all the rules that exist in most casinos nowadays. Fortunately, it also represents less than 0.05% advantage loss if used under any other playing conditions. Learning BS thoroughly, therefore, is your first task, before you can hope to become a consistent winner at blackjack. This point cannot be stressed too much. Committing BS to memory will come more easily if you know why the specific plays are recommended, rather than simply trying to remember them by rote. As with the “New Math,” understanding is the key to most useful knowledge, and this especially applies to correct BS. Therefore, let us now examine the BS proclamations line by line. Even experienced players should find this exercise helpful, if only as a quick review.
This line is probably obvious to everyone, but let’s make sure of our format. For visual clarity, the dealer’s stiff up-cards (2 to 6) have been slightly separated from his pat up-cards (7 to A). As before, “T” stands for any ten-valued card, whether it is a true 10 or one of the face cards. Your total is always to be considered “hard” (i.e., when you hold no Aces, or when you must count your Aces as Is to avoid going over 21), and not made up of a pair, unless noted as such.
The smallest two-card total you could possibly have is 5 (aside from a pair of 2s, which is seen lower in the chart), so you should hit, no matter which card the dealer is showing, since taking another card cannot possibly hurt you. With a total of 5, 6, 7 or 8 you can usually improve your position by taking another card. There is no way you can bust, and by standing with these poor totals the only way you can win is if the dealer busts. Notice that none of these totals is strong enough to warrant doubling your bet against any of the dealer’s up-cards.
Imaginary bells and whistles should ring in your ears whenever you receive an initial total of 9, 10 or 11. The hard two-card total of 9 represents your first good chance to make some “easy” money, simply by doubling your bet.
Don’t double your 9 against pat up-cards. When the dealer is showing stiff cards, double-down; otherwise, just take a hit. Note the exception is 9 versus 2. A dealer will always tend to draw stronger totals when showing the lowly 2. More about this later.
The reasoning behind the doubling proposition here is that both you and the dealer will likely draw a T, since approximately one-third of each deck consists of 10-valued cards. “The 10-factor,” a handy term coined by Avery Cardoza, suggests that you should always assume the next card to appear will be a T. Therefore, considering this 10-factor, you will most likely end up with a total of 19 after your next card, which represents a fairly strong hand. The dealer will have to draw a third card to his stiff totals of 13,14,15, and 16, and hence very likely bust. You will then be paid twice your initial wager as a result of your doubling-down. Taking full advantage of such “proposition” bets is an essential part of BS play. In order to help eliminate the casinos’ built-in odds advantages, you must increase the size of your bet whenever your chances of winning are better than the dealer’s.
This situation shouldn’t require much thought or explanation. Obviously, with a starting total of 10, doubling-down tends to gravitate toward final totals of 20, which are very strong hands indeed.
However, when the dealer has a 10-valued card or an Ace exposed, it is not wise to double your bet. Showing a T, he will likely end up with a 20 as well. You’d be foolish to shove out more money when the best you could hope for would be a push. You have no advantage in this situation, so risking more money is not justified. With an Ace as an up-card, the dealer usually makes a very strong total, especially if you are playing where soft 17s must be hit. The risk of your drawing a non-T and losing twice your initial wager simply does not warrant doubling-down against these two most powerful dealer up-cards. So, when you have 10 and the dealer is showing anything other than a T or Ace, be sure to double your bet. If you don’t, you are passing up a good opportunity to make some extra cash.
You have just received a two-card total of 11. Hear the music? See the flashing lights? Hopefully, they are not merely emanating from a nearby slot machine! The imaginary bells and whistles are tolling potential double profits on this hand. Double-down against everything except the dealer’s Ace. Next to a blackjack, this is the best starting hand you can get. If you happen to find a single-deck game, double your 11 versus the Ace as well.
When the dealer gets an Ace, he will win about 66% of the time and bust only 12%, because of the Ace’s “double-count” potential. Although the dealer does not win two out of three times when you have 11 versus A, according to computer simulations it is still not worth taking the chance of doubling your bet in this case, and possibly losing twice your initial wager.
It is important to note here that in charity casinos or in Europe, where the dealer’s hole card is not checked immediately, you would have the additional chance of losing if the dealer flips over a blackjack! Doubling 11 versus A in one of these casinos is even more risky and inadvisable.
You must realize that all your stiff totals from 12 to 16 are losing hands. Face the fact that no matter what you do, when dealt a surplus of stiff beginning totals you will not win much over the long haul. Don’t kid yourself; expect to lose in these situations, and at least you’ll never be disappointed. In order to minimize your losses, the best you can do is always play BS odds correctly and merely hope for the best.
Normally, your stiff hands warrant standing versus all of the dealer’s stiff up-cards, even though on average the dealer will end up with pat hands 72% of the time after initially showing potential stiffs. The fact that he busts 40% of the time means that you win 40% of your hands by standing, rather than risking possible automatic defeat by hitting and consequently busting.
The underlying math gets a little complicated here; even though you have almost a 60% chance of bettering your stiff totals by hitting, you will not necessarily win most of these “improved” hands. Drawing an Ace, 2, 3, or 4 to your 12 doesn’t help one iota, since you’ll still be stuck with a stiff hand after such hits. While it is true that by standing you only win when the dealer goes over 21, you will win more often by standing than by hitting in these double-stiff situations. When both you and the dealer are showing stiffs or potential stiffs, think to yourself, “If I hit this hand, I will probably bust due to the 10-factor and lose automatically. But if I stand, the dealer will likely bust after being forced to draw a third card; therefore, I am more apt to win in this situation merely by standing!”
Notice that the only exception to this general rule occurs when the dealer is showing a 2 or 3 and you have a 12. Because less than one-third of all possible draws can actually hurt you (i.e., only the T’s), and the dealer will draw a pat hand more than two-thirds of the time when showing a 2 or 3, you should therefore chance a hit in these two cases, even though only a 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 will actually improve your total. From a neutral shoe, you can easily see, there are four more cards per deck that could indeed help you, as opposed to those seemingly omnipresent T’s, which would create an immediate loss.
Notice that your total of stiff 13 or more does not warrant the risk of a hit against any of the dealer’s stiff cards even a 2 or a 3.
However, since the dealer breaks only about 25% of the time when showing a pat up-card, hitting your stiff totals under these circumstances is always the mathematically correct thing to do. Understand that you will still lose most of these hands, but you will reduce your losses by hitting rather than by standing in the long run. You are about to lose anyway, so you may as well take the opportunity of possibly drawing a small card, which will provide you with a pat and therefore potentially winning hand. This will happen rarely, but more often than the dealer will bust; therefore, you must take the chance of a hit.
If you are allowed to surrender, give up your 15 against the dealer’s T to get half of your initial wager back. It has been proven conclusively that hitting 15 versus 10 results in more losses than wins for the player, all other factors being equal. Therefore, giving up half of vour bet is your best option. If you are playing where surrender is not offered, then hit versus the dealer’s 10, knowing very well that you will likely lose, but also realizing that you are even more likely to lose by standing with the extremely weak 15.
Similarly, if you can surrender your 16 versus 9,10, or A, you should do so. Otherwise, take the hit versus these up-cards. Remember that hard 16 is absolutely the worst beginning total that you can possibly get, so don’t ever expect to win with it although you will occasionally by taking the additional card, in spite of the overwhelming odds against you. In this case, as with all your other stiff hands versus pat dealer up-cards, you are merely making the most intelligent play in a losing situation, and thereby reducing your long-term losses.
Never hit a hard pat hand versus any dealer up-card. The odds of improving these totals are far too slight, considering your high probability of busting.
For example, even though you will never win with a lowly 17 (unless the dealer actually breaks), the chance of your going over after a hit is greater than the dealer’s breaking potential. Besides, you often end up with a push by standing, and sometimes even a surprising win instead of the outright loss that would probably result from hitting any of these pat beginnings.
A soft 17 (comprised of three or more cards, not A,6) is too weak not to hit versus any up-card shown by the dealer. You have no chance of busting by taking the hit in this instance, and you can only win with soft 17 if the dealer goes bust. Realize that any 17 is a very poor total. A hard 17 is bad enough, but when it is soft you rarely hurt yourself by taking another card. Your chances of improving the hand are always much greater, since you will have a second chance to hit again if you happen to pull a stiff total on your first try. Never think of soft 17 as a pat hand. Just as it is advantageous for the casino when a dealer must hit soft 17s, so it is for the player to never stand with this poor total.
Drawing a soft hand of 17 or 18 (when doubling-down is no longer an option) is a common occurrence. Players often handle this situation incorrecdy, since the dealer may call out the totals as simply “17″ or “18,” instead of “7 or 17″ and “8 or 18″ as is the proper protocol. You might just hear the apparently pat total of 17 or 18 and wave off a hit automatically, without appreciating that such soft hands are very different from their hard counterparts. You are selling yourself short unless you learn to play these hands in the best possible manner.
The soft 18 (as opposed to A,7 when doubling is still an option) is probably the most commonly misplayed hand in all of blackjack. Otherwise competent players will often hit these hands versus the dealer’s stiff cards, thinking that the hit can’t hurt them, or they will stand with such 18s versus 9,10, or A. These are both poor plays.
At first glance it might seem reasonable to hit a soft 18 versus the dealer’s 3, 4, 5, or 6. After all, BS requires doubling against these stiff up-cards. What most players fail to realize is that doubling in these circumstances actually results in slightly more losses than wins. (See chapter 4 for details.) It is only advisable to double soft 18s when possible because the player wins twice the original wager on winning hands and is therefore further ahead overall. But taking another card without utilizing the doubling proposition is ultimately placing yourself in a losing situation over time in these cases. Don’t do it.
Because of the 10-factor and the Ace’s double-count potential for the dealer, a soft 18 must be considered a losing hand against the dealer’s 9, 10, or A. You should try to improve your prospects in these instances by hitting until you get a pat hand, even though you run the risk of possibly going bust after the second draw. It’s definitely worth the gamble versus these strong dealer up-cards.
Although the general rule is to hit all soft totals, here are a few exceptions that can certainly make you extra cash. Whenever you receive a two-card soft 13 or 14 against the 5 or 6, take advantage of these two weakest dealer’s up-cards by doubling your bet. You will have no chance of busting, while the dealer likely will. Very often you will end up with a hard 13 or 14 because of the 10-factor, but sometimes you will draw a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 and wind up with a pat hand.
Soft 15s and 16s gravitate toward stronger totals when hit than do soft 13s and 14s, since the higher the beginning total you receive, the higher your final result will be, generally speaking. Double these soft hands against the dealer’s 4, as well as the 5 and 6.
Players who merely stand on soft 17s are giving their money to the casinos needlessly. Remember, you cannot win with any 17, unless the dealer busts. A,6 is not your usual 17. Whenever the option is available, double against all dealer stiff cards except the 2. As with your beginning two-card total of 9, the 2 often provides the dealer with too strong a final total to risk doubling against it. The 2 is sometimes referred to as “the dealer’s Ace” in these situations, since it is such a good starting total for the house.
A,7 is the most difficult commonly received hand to play correctly. Rest assured that wrong advice will be offered freely to you by well-intentioned players and dealers alike, whenever you are dealt these cards.
Standing against the 2 is wise, since the 2 very often generates powerful totals for the dealer, and drawing to 18 could result in a stiff hand for you, i.e., an even worse situation. The 2 is simply too dangerous an up-card to risk offending in this case.
With dealer up-cards of 3, 4, 5, and 6, however, doubling is justified, since the dealer will bust with tiiese beginning stiffs more often than you will end up with stiffs from your double-downs. Strange as it seems, even though you will lose more hands than you win, you will end up ahead financially by doubling. (See chapter 4 for more details.)
The soft 18 already beats the dealer’s potential 17 and ties his 18, so stand versus the 7 and 8.
As mentioned above, because of the 10-factor and the Ace’s two-count potential, you know that 18 is a losing hand against the dealer’s 9, 10, and Ace. You must try to improve your prospects in this situation by hitting until you get a pat hand or until you break. Keep in mind that many other hands can produce a soft 18 total: A,2,5; A,3,A,3; 4,A,A,2; etc. Standing with such soft hands versus the dealer’s strong 9, 10, or Ace is the most common BS crime regularly committed by otherwise law abiding players.
Splitting is another example of proposition betting that has to be utilized to full advantage if you hope to offset the casinos’ inherently favorable odds in the game of blackjack. Since the probability is higher that the dealer will bust when showing stiff cards, splitting your poor beginning totals of 4 and 6 into two separate hands, with the possibility of receiving a favorable second card on each that could provide doubling-down opportunities, is a wise move. It more than doubles your odds of big wins in these situations.
Splitting 2s and 3s even against the dealer’s 2 is a smart decision, because of the good chance that you will draw second cards that will produce new beginning totals of 9, 10, or 11 and thereby allow you to double-down. Splitting these pairs against the dealer’s 7 may initially look like a questionable play, but the 7 usually results in the dealer’s weakest standing total. Believe it or not, a 17 is even weaker in the long run than stiff cards of 5 or 6 for the dealer. Therefore, even though the dealer will often make the pat total of 17, you will make stronger totals by splitting 2s and 3s, and enjoying the possible doubling and additional splitting opportunities, than you would by merely hitting these weak initial hands. As noted earlier, just as they do for the dealer, 2s and (to a lesser extent) 3s tend to produce strong totals for the player as well.
The doubling potential of two hands of 4 each is just barely great enough to justify splitting your fairly weak total of 8 against these two weakest of dealer up-cards.
Note here that you never split 5s, since 10 is nearly your strongest starting total. Because of the 10-factor, your chances of busting with a 5, even against the dealer’s weakest stiff cards, are far too great to warrant breaking up a winning initial draw of 10. You must favor the 10’s doubling potential. You are always far more likely to increase your winnings by doubling-down on a 10 than by splitting a pair of 5s.
Unfortunately, there is no way to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. Accept the fact that 6,6 is generally a losing hand any way you play it. Splitting your 6s against all of the dealer’s stii’f up-cards, however, is a slight improvement over playing your 12 according to normal BS. Even with the split, your only real hope lies in drawing a 3, 4, or 5 to your 6s, then doubling-down. Splitting 6s often results in one lost hand and one winner a break-even situation that should be appreciated. When you don’t lose with 6s, consider yourself a winner.
This is a poor hand as well. Splitting 7s tends to give you two hands of 17 winners only if the dealer busts. But the greater busting potential of the dealer when showing stiff totals makes splitting your 14 up to 7 somewhat more profitable. At least your 17s will push the dealer’s potential 17s. Splitting 7s up to and including 7 is your best option under these circumstances.
You will lose less in the long run by hitting 7,7 against the 8 through A, rather than splitting versus these stronger dealer up-cards. By just standing, you will more than likely lose, so you must try to improve your total in this situation, just as you would with any odd-card beginning total of 14.
A beginning total of 16 is a player’s worst nightmare. The advantage of splitting your 8s against all the dealer’s up-cards to 7 is fairly obvious. Two potential winning hands of 18 each (because of the 10-factor again) is far better than sticking with a losing 16 or than risking a bust by taking a hit. In splitting 8s versus the dealer’s 8, you are hoping desperately for a push; this is the one and only time you should ever risk more money in the off-chance of merely obtaining a tie.
The wisdom of splitting 8s against the 9,10, and Ace is not as clear. At first glance, apparently you would be turning one potentially losing hand of 16 into two hands of 18! In reality, however, there is a slight gain in splitting, rather than hitting the easily bustable 16. Quite often you will win one hand and lose the other, resulting in an overall no-loss situation. This is somewhat of an improvement even over surrendering. When you do come out of such a scenario with a tie, consider yourself fortunate.
There is an exception to the “Always split 8s” rule. When playing at charity casinos or outside North America, where the dealers do not take hole cards, surrender your 8s versus the dealer’s T and Ace, if allowed. If surrendering is not permitted, then hit your 16 instead of splitting it against these two strong dealer up-cards. In these rare cases, you don’t want to take the chance of the dealer turning over a blackjack and your losing two bets instead of one.
Splitting 9s against all dealer up-cards except the 7, 10, and Ace makes perfect sense. Although 18, in itself, will generally win over the dealer’s stiff up-cards and 7, by splitting 9,9 into two hands you seize the opportunity to get more money onto the table precisely when you have a bigger advantage. Both of your hands will gravitate toward the strong total of 19, representing potential winners over everything up to the dealer’s own 9, which itself would likely produce a push. There is also the off-chance of drawing a 2 as the second card on each 9, thereby setting up ideal doubling situations.
Do not, however, risk a “sure” win with your initial 18 when the dealer’s up-card is a 7. You must assume the dealer will draw a T, so doing nothing in this case should make you a winner.
Obviously, splitting the 9s would not tend to produce winning hands against the T or Ace, so stick with your original 18 versus those two up-cards. The best you can do is hope the 10-factor won’t come into play with the dealer’s T, but that it will with the Ace in order to force a third-card dealer bust.
“Always split Aces,” as the saying goes, because 11 is your best starting total. Remember that you normally get just one card on each, and resultant “blackjacks” count only as 21s, so don’t look for the 3-to-2 payoff when you win. (A blackjack occurs only when your original hand consists of a 10-valued card and an Ace. “Blackjacks” on split Aces are not true blackjacks, since your first two cards of the hand were actually Aces.) Even so, you are much further ahead splitting them than by merely hitting your 2 or 12.
There is, however, one exception to the rule. As with the 8s, when playing at charity casinos or in Europe, where the dealers do not take hole cards, just hit your Aces, rather than splitting them when the dealer also shows an Ace. Keep in mind that a 2 is not such a terrible beginning total. In these cases, it is more than likely that the dealers would draw T’s, thereby producing blackjacks. You would end up losing both your split bets, whether or not you drew T’s to them. Fortunately, in most North American casinos where hole cards are not checked, the player who splits or doubles-down against the dealer’s Ace or T only loses his one original wager whenever the dealer ends up with a blackjack.
Remember never to take insurance unless you are tracking (counting) the cards. It is a poor bet unless the true count (TC) is quite favorable.
Also, never split 5s under any circumstances even if you are a card-counter. You are always better off simply doubling the 10, since the 10-factor tends to produce two totals of 15 from two 5s, in effect turning one winning hand into two losing hands.
Do not split T’s unless you are counting the cards and know that the odds of drawing T’s are greatly in your favor. Stick with your already strong total of 20, and be content with the single win.
It is very important that you learn all of the proper BS plays and always play completely accurately. Remember that playing even 5% of your hands incorrectly swings the overall percentage advantage well back into the casino’s favor. Never rely upon hunches or intuition. Stick doggedly to the best, mathematically proven strategy available today, and at least give yourself the opportunity to be an overall winner by abiding with correct BS. Simply by following BS consistently, you can rightly think of yourself as a good blackjack player. Even if you learn no additional skills, this is a significant accomplishment, since you will no longer need to fear losing money from the game.
I can’t emphasize strongly enough the vital importance of seriously studying the BS table I have provided. If you ever wish to have a significant edge over any blackjack game, or if you plan to read on and eventually learn how to obtain up to 10% advantage over most casinos by using the information and skills presented in subsequent chapters, you simply must commit this basic playing strategy information to memory first. If I have dwelled too long upon how very important mastering BS is, please forgive me. But how else can I stress the absolute necessity of learning optimum BS? Please, don’t put it off. Perhaps you might like to start with a review right now!
An excellent way to learn the BS of blackjack is by absorbing the reasoning behind each play, as presented in the line-by-line commentary above. Do this even before proceeding to subsequent chapters. The rest of this blog can do you little good if you don’t know the proper way to play every possible hand that you may be dealt. Study the BS table, section by section, until you feel completely sure of each correct play. Get someone to quiz you by asking questions like, “You have an Ace and a 3, and the dealer is snowing a 4. What should you do?” It’s not going to be easy, but it is absolutely essential that you completely master all of the best basic plays before trying to incorporate any of the additional information that follows.
From my years of observation, it is a conservative guess that fewer than 5% of all blackjack players play correctly, i.e., have taken the time and made the effort to learn proper BS. Most have a general grasp of what to do, but they end up relying upon their “gut feelings” for the rest. For example, by their frequency of occurrence, over 80% of all playing decisions are covered under the following half-dozen general BS rules:
1. Hit all your stiffs versus the dealer’s pat up-cards.
2. Always stand upon receiving a pat total.
3. Stand on all your stiffs versus the dealer’s stiff up-cards.
4. Hit all soft totals less than 19.
5. Always split Aces and 8s, but never 5s nor T’s.
6. Double-down on all two-card totals of 10 or 11.
As you will see if you check back to the BS chart, only one of the above general BS rules is 100% valid. (As a little review at this point, take a moment now to determine which one it is.) Although they are not entirely accurate, following these six rules puts you far ahead of most players; however, almost 20% of your playing decisions must still be left to chance. This is exactly where the casinos get the advantage that allows them to pay their huge electric bills and then some! But why should you give away up to 10% of your playing stakes every session by playing these few remaining hands according to only your best intuitive guesses? (I call these players “VIP’s,” which stands for Viscerally Influenced Players.) Instead, simply learn to play BS 100% correcdy regardless of the size of your wager, and enjoy the overall edge for yourself!