The Luck/Chance Quandary
Not understanding the difference between “luck” and “chance” has cost gamblers plenty over the years. Part of the problem lies in semantics, while part comes from just plain ignorance. When the French say, “Bonne chance!” they really mean “Good luck!” Luck and chance refer to fortune and probability respectively. Luck is not a commodity that everyone receives at birth, nor should you expect x amount of good luck during your lifetime. Players who trust providence to make them winners at blackjack are simply too lazy to learn how to win for themselves, i.e., by playing with the mathematically proven odds in their favor. They are truly gamblers. Blackjack is partially a game of chance, since luck is always a factor, but when enough skill is applied it is possible to remove the “gambling” perspective from blackjack’s big picture entirely.
Cicero once said, “Probabilities direct the conduct of a wise man.” Just because you play, for example, using the MBS described in chapter 7 correctly, does not guarantee that you will not lose; it simply means that you will probably win. The widespread misconception that luck will necessarily change (i.e., that after a series of losses one is somehow “due” for a series of wins) has resulted in much player chagrin (see myth 6 in chapter 4). Probability theory clearly indicates that a trend is just as apt to continue as to reverse; therefore, a player’s bad luck can follow him for a lifetime. Any blackjack player’s time at the tables must be considered only short-term with respect to the infinite probability curve. It is certainly “unlucky” for you whenever you lose a session, especially after playing every hand optimally, but your fortune will not change because of luck or the law of averages intervening. Only if the odds are with you will your bad luck eventually turn to good.
Never depend upon Lady Luck. She is an untrustworthy old acquaintance at best. As Machiavelli pointed out, “He who holds the least to fortune is in the strongest position.” (Was he plagiarizing Cicero?) Griffith K. Owens, who wrote and played under his better-known pseudonym of Lawrence Revere, always maintained that a good blackjack player never guesses, he knows. Knowledge of the game and the skillful use of MBS advice generated from the results of millions of hands are your only reliable cohorts. Luck is fictitious; computer-based statistical research is factual. The ancient Greeks had a saying worth remembering, “Good luck is the reward of the skillful.” Believe this, and financial success will surely accompany your blackjack playing for the rest of your life.
