The MBS Advantage
There is one additional, truly significant step that you can take, however, to increase your winnings even more dramatically. It is the main focus of this chapter. By adjusting or “modifying” your BS play according to what the TC happens to be, you can increase your advantage by up to three percentage points or more, depending upon how much additional information you choose to learn and how well you can apply it.
Presumably, you have had a chance to practice your blackjack skills to date, and probably have proven to yourself the value of strictly adhering to BS plays, and implementing appropriate TC wagering (see chapter 6). Obviously, you have already acquired a huge edge over any casino. Nevertheless, by using the following MBS techniques correctly, you will be providing yourself with the greatest single playing-skill advantage possible. The implementation of MBS play is primarily what distinguishes the merely good players from the truly expert. This is precisely the “secret” information currently offered players in various self-serving blackjack publications, at prices ranging from $200 to $1,000.
In chapter 3 you discovered that whenever the composition of the remaining cards to be dealt is neutral or unknown, there is an optimum or “definitive” BS, which should be followed unquestioningly in order to obtain the best long-term results. Similarly, more exhaustive computer studies have shown that as the ratio of high cards to low cards changes, certain BS plays should also change. One wins more and loses less on certain close plays because of the various probability factors involved. Some of these modifications to the BS are easy to remember, since they are so reasonable and make such good sense.
A good example to consider first might be the situation that could occur when the TC is very positive (indicating an overwhelming surplus of T’s ready to appear next) and, after flipping over an Ace, the dealer asks, “Insurance, anyone?” Accepting the insurance proposition would likely be a smart decision in this case. Although BS warns against ever taking insurance, remember that BS is applicable only when the count is unknown or neutral. Since you know this TC is unusually high, BS advice is no longer completely reliable in this scenario; because you were carefully counting the cards, you realize that the odds now favor the dealer’s having a T to go with the Ace. It would be foolish not to take advantage of this knowledge. Obviously, in certain circumstances like this, you need to modify your otherwise sound BS plays because of the additional information available to you, in this case the increased likelihood of 10-valued cards (and Aces) being readily available. Adopting slightly different BS plays according to the particular TC that happens to exist at any given moment during the game is the basic thinking behind all of the indices presented in the MBS tables in this chapter.
As it was with BS, the easiest way to learn any MBS is through understanding rather than merely memorizing the indices entirely by rote. First of all, make sure that you are completely familiar with the correct BS presented in chapter 3 and fully appreciate the reasoning behind all of its plays. If you are uncertain about any aspect of BS, stop and review it now. Unless BS is firmly established in your mind, the MBS tables that follow may appear confusing, since they only indicate where differences or exceptions in the BS plays should occur.
The next logical step is to imagine a positive Hi-Low TC of, say, +1 to + 3 and how such a surplus of T’s would likely affect your chances of winning, given various specific hands to play. You already understand from reading about counting-systems theory in chapter 6 why a positive count puts the odds firmly in your favor; therefore, you know that your plays can be, justifiably, a little more aggressive under these circumstances. For instance, you can double-down with somewhat more assurance that you will receive one of those most beneficial cards the super-abundant T’s and that the dealer’s hole card will more likely be a T as well.
