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In the early 1960s, with the help of powerful computers, Edward Thorp proved conclusively that the removal of all four 5s from single-deck play resulted in the player’s advantage over the dealer increasing by 3.6%. As a strategy for single-deck play, he suggested that players take note of how many 5s remained to be dealt in order to range their bets more relevantly. Using BS until all four 5s came out of the deck, a player following this simple “Five-count” strategy enjoyed an average edge of almost 3%. Even though all the 5s were rarely used up early in any game, and the player’s small bets won less than normal BS expectations, the player could still achieve and maintain a significant advantage over the dealer by using this strategy. This was the first simple counting system that worked, and it is just as effective today.
Thorp suggested playing a modified BS when none of the 5s are available to be dealt. The relevant changes include standing with 12 versus all dealer stiff cards, with 15 versus 9 and 10, and with three or more cards totaling 16 versus a 7 or 8. Several other MBS plays were recommended, and the interested reader may study them all at leisure in the second edition of Beat the Dealer, page 49.
Speaking about his Five-count strategy, Thorp pointed out, “One skilled player whom I know asserts that he can play 350 hands per hour when playing head on. Betting from $1 to $500 he would average $170 x 3.5 or about $595 per hour. Although this is theoretically possible, it is highly unlikely that anyone could achieve such glowing results playing the Five-count system these days.
Although definitely a winning strategy, the Five-count has many weaknesses. First of all, it loses effectiveness in shoe games, since the removal of such a small number of cards (i.e., only the 5s) influences the remaining deck composition much less, as explained in Myth #1, chapter 4. Second, the player must range his bets too drastically in order to take full advantage of situations when no 5s are left. This is always a dangerous practice, drawing immediate scrutiny from casino personnel. Third, other players at the table can too easily (albeit unwittingly) absorb the benefits of positive circumstances for themselves. Finally, the Five-count system provides no information about either the second most influential card for the player or the most abundant card in the deck, i.e., the Ace and the T respectively.