Thorp’s Ten-Count Strategy
Card for card, it was a fact that the 5s being removed from a deck had the most effect upon the player’s advantage. Conversely, Thorp also discovered that adding four T’s to a deck increased the chances of winning the next hand by 1.89%. He proceeded to prove that the “richer” the deck was in 10-value cards, the greater the player’s advantage became. Since in every deck there are four times as many T’s than there are any other-valued card, this meant that there could be a much greater deviation from the norm when T’s were tracked instead of 5s. Such variations meant even bigger possible gains for the player. Therefore, Thorp devised a much more powerful counting system, which came to be known as “Thorp’s Ten-count.”
Basically, the Ten-count system takes note of only two types of cards, the non-T’s and the T’s. By constantly comparing this ratio to the normal beginning ratio of 36 to 16, a competent counter is able to determine the degree of “10-richness” of the remaining deck at any given time. Dividing 36 by 16 gives 2.25, which represents the neutral condition of any deck. Thorp calculated that if this ratio dropped to 1.0 (i.e., an equal number of T’s and non-T’s remaining to be dealt), the player’s advantage is approximately 9%. By ranging bets according to the 10-richness of the deck therefore, one could unquestionably make huge profits.
Thorp’s Ten-count is more powerful than the Five-count, and it has the additional feature of informing the player exacdy when to take insurance (i.e., whenever the ratio drops below 2.0). It unfortunately has significant disadvantages as well. One shortcoming is that, like the Five-count, it fails to recognize the tremendous importance of the Aces. This defect forces the conscientious counter to keep track of them separately, along with the number of T’s and the number of non-T’s seen. This practice necessarily involves keeping three separate numbers in mind throughout the game, updating them through not-so-simple arithmetic calculations as every card is dealt. Not an easy proposition for anyone, and simply too difficult for most people to attempt under actual casino conditions.
The main problem with the Ten-count, however, aside from its incessant and complicated mathematical calculations, is its difficult-to-memorize implementation tables. Only those players who have considerable math abilities, including excellent short-term memory skills, should even consider learning this system. For instance, in a single-deck game, after seeing four T’s and eleven non-T’s, you must realize that twenty-five non-T’s and twelve T’s remain available (subtracting 11 and 4 from 36 and 16 respectively), dien do the necessary division in your head to arrive at the new rounded-off ratio figure of 2.08. Relating this number to Thorp’s table, which you must have previously memorized, you quickly determine and place your correct-sized wager in time to play the next round. Then you must compare this figure to the most daunting of modification tables. Only then can you decide how best to actually play your hand.
Although Thorp’s Ten-count system could still be a big moneymaker in the few single-deck games today, its necessary mathematical calculations are simply beyond most players’ capabilities, especially under actual playing conditions. The speed of the game exerts too great a pressure on one’s arithmetic skills and memory to make the Ten-count viable, and it is virtually impossible to use in shoe games. It is, nevertheless, worthwhile to obtain a copy of Beat the Dealer and study Thorp’s systems and research tables. Interesting, truly exhaustive, and thoroughly reliable, they are essential reading for the serious student of the game. Every modern blackjack player owes Thorp a huge debt of gratitude and should rightly pay homage to his tremendous insight and ability. To call oneself a “counter” without being totally familiar with the original contributions of “the master” is but little short of blackjack blasphemy.
