Why Counting Systems Work
Only in blackjack do the cards have what can rightly be considered a kind of “memory.” One type of card is not just as likely as any other to appear next. Almost a third of every deck consists of a single card the 10-valued card. Whether they are “painted” cards (Jacks, Queens, and Kings) or regular 10s, they are all equivalent members of this group labeled “T” for 10. Fortunately, these most abundant cards are also the most valuable to the player. To cite an obvious example, they are essential in the formation of blackjacks. Although there is far more chance that a non-T will be dealt first from a freshly shuffled deck, the odds that a T will appear rather than any other card are always much greater. This is true because the T’s predominate; there are simply so many more of them than anything else four times as many, in fact. In this sense, the deck always “remembers” to favor the T’s whenever possible.
This is not the only reason that the deck in a blackjack game may be viewed as having its own sort of memory. As individual cards are brought into play during the course of a game, the composition of the remaining deck changes. Those spent cards are no longer part of the available pool; therefore, the normal distribution within the deck is upset. Cards about to appear next must “remember” to take this inequality of access into account and conform to the new set of probabilities that happens to apply at any particular moment during the game.
Think about this hypothetical situation: You are playing a six-deck shoe game, one-on-one with the dealer, and have been carefully keeping track of all the cards as they are used up during play. Unlikely as it may be, assume that you could now know for a fact that only 8s remain to be dealt. This means that any other cards are not just unlikely to appear before the next shuffle, they absolutely cannot be drawn from the remaining shoe. Under these circumstances, how much should you bet on your next hand?
It is important that you take a second to think about this imaginary but unique situation, because it illustrates a counter’s perspective on the game very well. Knowing how much to bet on the next hand, according to the odds of winning or losing, represents one of the card-caser’s biggest advantages. (The other main part of a counter’s edge lies in the knowledge of how best to play every hand optimally, according to the MBS) So, have you decided how much to wager in this scenario? The answer, of course, is “Bet the ranch!” You can’t possibly lose, unless you absentmindedly hit your original two-card total of 16.
Although it is an extremely atypical example, the above no-lose situation could never come about in any other casino game, even hypothetically. Other games all enjoy their various fixed percentage advantages over the player for every wager made. Therefore, such an opportunity could not possibly present itself. It illustrates how only blackjack can be beaten through astute observation of which cards have already been played and the implementation of more appropriate playing decisions based upon that information. Depending upon which cards are left to be dealt to the player(s) and dealer, sometimes the odds favor the house, sometimes they are completely neutral, but sometimes they favor the player! Herein lies the big distinction for blackjack, and vive la difference! Only an experienced counter, however, knows before any given deal exactly where the advantage lies.
